How to Choose Countries for ASO Expansion (2025 Guide)

In 2025, 34% of all new App Store downloads come from emerging markets outside the United States.

Yet most apps focus ASO efforts exclusively on English-speaking markets, missing significant growth opportunities.

Choosing the right countries for international expansion determines whether localization delivers 128% download growth or marginal results that don't justify the investment.

Here's a data-driven framework for market selection.

The Four-Factor Country Selection Framework

Effective market selection balances opportunity (potential), evidence (current signals), feasibility (ease of entry), and efficiency (ROI).

Factor 1: Current Organic Signals

The strongest predictor of localization success is existing organic interest.

What to measure:

App Store Connect (iOS): Navigate to App Analytics → Metrics → App Store Views → by Territory

Look for:

• Page views per country
• Conversion rate per country
• Impressions per country

Play Console (Android): Navigate to Store Performance → Store Listing Visitors → by country

Qualification threshold:

Tier 1 signals (localize immediately): 500+ monthly page views with conversion rate 50%+ below your baseline

Tier 2 signals (strong candidates): 200-500 monthly page views with below-average conversion

Tier 3 signals (monitor): 50-200 monthly page views

If a country shows zero organic traffic, localization won't create demand from nothing. You need evidence of existing interest.

Example analysis:

Your app gets 10,000 monthly US page views with a 35% conversion rate.

Germany: 600 page views, 18% conversion rate → Strong candidate (high traffic, low conversion suggests language barrier)

France: 300 page views, 32% conversion rate → Monitor (decent traffic, already converting well)

Japan: 150 page views, 12% conversion rate → Strong candidate (lower traffic but very low conversion, massive upside)

Netherlands: 100 page views, 34% conversion rate → Low priority (converting fine without localization)

Factor 2: Market Size and Growth

Larger markets offer more upside for the same localization investment.

Key metrics:

Smartphone users: Countries with 50M+ smartphone users provide meaningful scale

App spending: Revenue per user varies dramatically by market

Growth rate: Emerging markets often show higher year-over-year growth

2025 Top Markets by Size:

Country	Smartphone Users	App Revenue/User	2025 Growth Rate
China	950M	High (games), Low (other)	5-7%
India	600M	Low but growing	15-20%
United States	280M	Highest	3-5%
Indonesia	180M	Medium	12-15%
Brazil	150M	Medium	10-12%
Japan	125M	Highest	2-3%
Russia	110M	Medium	5-8%
Mexico	95M	Medium	8-10%
Germany	70M	High	4-6%
France	55M	High	4-6%

Source: Industry reports, 2025 projections

Growth vs. maturity trade-off:

Mature markets (US, Japan, Germany) have high revenue per user but slower growth.

Emerging markets (India, Indonesia, Brazil) have lower revenue per user but faster growth and less competition.

Your category and monetization model determine which matters more.

Factor 3: Language Coverage

Some languages unlock multiple markets with a single localization investment.

High-coverage languages:

Spanish:

• Spain (47M users)
• Mexico (95M users)
• Colombia (35M users)
• Argentina (35M users)
• Plus 15+ other Latin American countries
• Total reach: 550M+ speakers

French:

• France (55M users)
• Canada/Quebec (8M users)
• Belgium (6M users)
• Parts of Africa (growing market)
• Total reach: 300M+ speakers

Portuguese:

• Brazil (150M users)
• Portugal (8M users)
• African markets (emerging)
• Total reach: 250M+ speakers

German:

• Germany (70M users)
• Austria (7M users)
• Switzerland (6M users)
• Total reach: 100M speakers

Japanese:

• Japan only (125M users)
• Highest revenue per user globally
• Worth it despite single-country coverage

Strategy implication:

Spanish localization covers 20+ countries. Japanese covers one. But Japanese users spend 3x more per capita. Both can be high ROI for different reasons.

Factor 4: Competition and Category Dynamics

Some markets are easier to break into than others.

Competitive analysis process:

Step 1: Search for your top keywords in target market's app store

Step 2: Review top 10 results

• How many are localized?
• Are they global apps or local competitors?
• What's their rating and review count?

Step 3: Assess difficulty

• Low competition: Top 10 has <5 localized apps, mixed ratings
• Medium competition: Top 10 mostly localized, strong ratings
• High competition: Top 10 all localized, dominant local players

Category-specific patterns:

Games: Extremely competitive in Asian markets, moderate in Europe

Productivity: Less competitive globally, language barriers higher

Social/Dating: Strong local players in most markets, hard to penetrate

Finance: Regulatory barriers matter more than localization

Health/Fitness: Moderate competition, good localization ROI

Strategy:

If you're in a competitive category, target markets where you already have traction rather than trying to break into new markets cold.

Prioritization Scoring Model

Use this framework to rank potential markets:

Scoring criteria (1-10 scale):

1. Organic signals:

   • 10 pts: 500+ monthly page views
   • 7 pts: 200-500 page views
   • 4 pts: 50-200 page views
   • 1 pt: <50 page views

2. Market size:

   • 10 pts: 100M+ smartphone users
   • 7 pts: 50-100M users
   • 4 pts: 20-50M users
   • 1 pt: <20M users

3. Conversion gap:

   • 10 pts: 60%+ below baseline conversion
   • 7 pts: 40-60% below baseline
   • 4 pts: 20-40% below baseline
   • 1 pt: <20% below baseline

4. Revenue potential:

   • 10 pts: High-spending market for your category
   • 7 pts: Medium-spending market
   • 4 pts: Growing but currently low-spending
   • 1 pt: Low-spending market

5. Localization cost:

   • 10 pts: Language you've already localized (can reuse for new country)
   • 7 pts: Easy translation, minimal cultural adaptation needed
   • 4 pts: Standard translation and screenshot adaptation
   • 1 pt: Complex adaptation required (right-to-left, cultural sensitivities)

Total score: Sum all categories (max 50 points)

Prioritization:

• 40-50 points: Localize immediately
• 30-39 points: Strong candidate, localize in phase 2
• 20-29 points: Monitor, consider if you expand aggressively
• <20 points: Deprioritize

Example Country Selection Process

Scenario: Productivity app with 50K monthly US page views, 35% conversion rate, considering international expansion

Step 1: Review analytics

Countries with 500+ monthly page views:

• Germany: 1,200 page views, 16% conversion
• France: 800 page views, 19% conversion
• Brazil: 600 page views, 14% conversion
• Japan: 450 page views, 11% conversion
• Spain: 380 page views, 18% conversion

Step 2: Apply scoring model

Germany:

• Organic signals: 10 (1200 page views)
• Market size: 7 (70M users)
• Conversion gap: 10 (54% below baseline)
• Revenue potential: 10 (high-spending, strong productivity market)
• Localization cost: 7 (straightforward translation)
• Total: 44 → Localize immediately

France:

• Organic signals: 10 (800 page views)
• Market size: 7 (55M users)
• Conversion gap: 9 (46% below baseline)
• Revenue potential: 10 (high-spending market)
• Localization cost: 7 (straightforward translation)
• Total: 43 → Localize immediately

Brazil:

• Organic signals: 10 (600 page views)
• Market size: 10 (150M users)
• Conversion gap: 10 (60% below baseline)
• Revenue potential: 7 (medium-spending, growing)
• Localization cost: 7 (straightforward translation)
• Total: 44 → Localize immediately

Japan:

• Organic signals: 7 (450 page views)
• Market size: 10 (125M users)
• Conversion gap: 10 (69% below baseline)
• Revenue potential: 10 (highest revenue/user globally)
• Localization cost: 4 (requires careful cultural adaptation)
• Total: 41 → Localize immediately

Spain:

• Organic signals: 7 (380 page views)
• Market size: 4 (47M users)
• Conversion gap: 9 (49% below baseline)
• Revenue potential: 7 (medium-high spending)
• Localization cost: 10 (Spanish already done for Brazil)
• Total: 37 → Phase 2

Recommendation: Start with Germany, France, and Brazil (Portuguese). Add Japan in phase 2 despite high score due to cultural complexity requiring more preparation. Spain gets nearly free localization after Portuguese by adapting Brazilian Portuguese to European Spanish.

Common Market Selection Mistakes

Mistake 1: Choosing markets based on assumptions, not data

"We should localize for China because it's huge" ignores whether you have any organic Chinese traffic.

Mistake 2: Ignoring existing traction

If Germany is sending you 1000 monthly page views organically, that's a stronger signal than "India is a big market."

Mistake 3: Localizing too many markets simultaneously

Start with 1-3 markets, validate the approach, then expand. Don't localize 15 languages at once.

Mistake 4: Choosing markets based on personal interest

"I lived in France, so let's localize French" is less strategic than "France sends us 800 monthly page views with a 19% conversion rate."

Mistake 5: Ignoring language reuse opportunities

Localizing Portuguese for Brazil lets you cover Portugal nearly for free. Spanish for Spain covers most of Latin America with minor adaptations.

Budget-Based Expansion Paths

Minimal budget ($500-1000):

• Choose your single highest-scoring market
• Metadata localization only
• Validate ROI before expanding

Small budget ($2000-5000):

• Top 3 markets
• Metadata + screenshot localization
• Covers 1-2 new languages

Medium budget ($10,000-20,000):

• Top 5-7 markets
• Full localization including video
• Covers 3-4 languages with regional variants

Large budget ($50,000+):

• Top 10-15 markets
• Full localization with cultural adaptation
• Covers 6-8 major languages plus variants

Validation Before Full Commitment

Before investing heavily in a new market:

Week 1: Translate metadata only (app title, subtitle, description)

Week 2-4: Monitor conversion rate and download changes

Week 5: If downloads increased 30%+, proceed with screenshot localization

Week 6-8: Monitor again post-screenshot localization

Week 9: If cumulative increase is 80%+, market validated

This staged approach costs <$200 to test a market before committing to full localization.

FAQs

Which countries should I localize for first?

Prioritize countries where you already have organic traffic (500+ monthly page views), large smartphone markets (50M+ users), and languages with broad coverage (Spanish covers 20+ countries). Top first markets typically include Germany, France, Japan, Brazil, and Spain.

How do I know if a market is worth localizing?

A market is worth localizing if it meets at least two of these criteria: 500+ monthly organic page views, conversion rate 50%+ below your English-market rate, market size of 50M+ smartphone users, or high revenue per user in your app category.

What's the ROI timeline for international ASO expansion?

Most markets show measurable download increases within 2-4 weeks of localization. High-impact markets like Japan, France, and Germany typically deliver 100-200%+ download growth within 60 days.

Should I localize for countries with no current traffic?

Generally no. Localization amplifies existing demand; it doesn't create demand where none exists. Focus on markets showing organic signals first.

How many markets should I localize at once?

Start with 1-3 markets to validate your process and measure ROI. Expand to 5-7 markets in phase 2 if initial results are positive. Avoid localizing 10+ markets simultaneously unless you have significant resources.

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Country selection for ASO expansion is strategy, not geography. Use data to find markets where you already have traction, then systematically expand to maximize ROI.